"There is no doubt about the new round of large-scale start-up of China's photovoltaic market," said Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.

According to Wang Sicheng’s calculations, the average annual national subsidies for photovoltaic power generation in the next 10 years will be 20 billion yuan before photovoltaic generation.

Compared with those new investors who are eager to try, the sooner the investors involved in the industry are, the lower the degree of excitement is. In the face of many major risks such as large investment returns, roof ownership, and changes in the main body, it may be difficult to make the domestic PV market short-term. Big.

Good and continuous

The photovoltaic industry, which was struggling on the verge of dying, had good news over the past few days.

"Distributed subsidy policy will be introduced at the latest by the end of August this year. At the same time, subsidy prices, photovoltaic grid-connected and other previously discussed photovoltaic package policies will be launched together." International solar energy held in Datong on August 2nd After the competition and the curtain call for the International Solar Energy Summit, Deputy Director Liang Zhipeng of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration told the China Times reporter.

The price commitment of 0.56 EUR/watt previously passed and the 7GW ceiling of annual export volume have been settled. This price commitment on August 6th has been implemented, which has prevented the 47.6% of high tariffs levied on China’s exports of European products.

At the same time, Tu Wu, the business development director of Artes (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (hereafter referred to as “Artis Investment Company”), told the reporter that the list of national distributed photovoltaic demonstration zones had been delayed. It will also be announced on the "subsidy bus" issued by the subsidy policy. It has previously reported 14 demonstration zones, with 7 provinces and 7 cities. “It is estimated that about 10 demonstration zones will be announced eventually. These demonstration zones are selected from the national industrial parks or economic development zones in the provinces (cities) where they are located, and each photovoltaic project has a scale requirement.”

How much is the distributed subsidy price? Previously passed 0.42 yuan / watt electricity subsidies, I am afraid there are still variables, Liang Zhipeng humorously described this reporter, "If the vegetable market to buy food, less than the last minute, the price will not be static."

According to Wang Sicheng’s calculations, the average annual price of PV in the next 10 years will require state subsidy of 20 billion yuan of photovoltaic power generation, which means that a total of 200 billion yuan in subsidies will be used to attract investors to compete with the domestic PV market.

According to Wang Sicheng, before 2020, the average annual installed capacity of 10-15 GW is no problem. The capacity of the market was 100 billion to 150 billion yuan last year. Such a large market will have a promising prospect once it is started. “Now the National Energy Administration is planning 30 years and 50 years for the photovoltaic industry. By 2015, China’s cumulative installed capacity will reach 35GW (35 million kilowatts), and by 2020 it will reach 100GW (100 million kilowatts); from 2020 to 2050 Photovoltaic installed capacity will also increase substantially, with an average annual installed capacity of 30 GW. At that time, excess capacity will naturally disappear. At this time, domestic photovoltaic capacity is just enough for the domestic market demand.” Wang Sicheng revealed.

Investment and risk game

In response to the new round of large-scale launch of China's photovoltaic market, Wang Sicheng said in an interview with this reporter: “We are very worried that PV investors will flock to the market again, and will repeat the previous farce. It will eventually be empty again.”

Nowadays, “Coal Capital” Datong is going to enter the photovoltaic industry in a drastic manner and it is said that by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the output value of the photovoltaic industry will be equal to the output value of the local coal industry.

“Now the state is discussing two things. First, where is the demonstration area? First, how much is the subsidy electricity price?” said an authoritative source inside the industry. “But it is certain that this time the country will allow companies to The tiptoe is a bit profitable and will not allow companies to make big profits."

"From the move of large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plants to the development of distributed photovoltaics, the ground-level power stations are mostly distributed in western regions such as Qinghai. The time-consuming and power-consuming construction of power stations eventually has problems, and no electricity is required, but distributed photovoltaics It can be consumed on the spot to solve the terminal market problems.” Tu Wu told the reporter.

From the ground to the roof, China has taken an important step in opening up the domestic market. In fact, the war to find the roof has already started.

Atos Investment Corporation, which began its research last year, found that distributed photovoltaics are "very ideal and full of reality, but they are realistic."

“Under the current economic situation, companies are short of money, and the risk of small business operations is high. They may have closed down at any time,” Tu Wu said with a sigh. “So it's very difficult to choose.”

To disappoint Tu Wuyi, although the Qingdao Haier Group, which was selected by thousands of talents, has a large-scale rooftop and will save several million yuan in costs each year after doing distributed photovoltaic projects, Haier’s enthusiasm is not high. Haier’s consideration is that any link can save millions of dollars every year, but the cost of pre-construction photovoltaic projects is about ten times that of the saved funds. It takes 889 years to return to this, and there is a problem in the middle of the roof. What to do, compared with the return on investment, the risk is too great.

In order to solve the roof problem, the upper and middle reaches of polysilicon and module companies have tried to cooperate with the roofed enterprises, and they have achieved a "win-win" by selling them after they have been built up and repaid at a certain percentage each year. However, they have encountered many problems during the actual operation.

Tu Wuyi deeply feels this. "The best way is to cooperate according to the ownership of the roof, but because the service life of the photovoltaic equipment is 25 years, the period of subsidies is 20 years. During this period of time, the roofed enterprise has to renovate the roof. What to do in the event of business failures, business failures, and corporate transfers. No company dares to promise anything, and Chinese companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have a life expectancy of less than 25 years."

It is worth noting that, in addition to subsidies provided by the state, the state allows each province (city) to subsidize local PV distributed projects according to its own financial conditions. “The amount of subsidy at the provincial and municipal levels is totally unrestricted by the state, and it is entirely set by the local provinces (municipalities).” Wang Sicheng told this reporter. But the anxiety for PV companies is that up until today, no province or city has actually introduced a corresponding subsidy policy.

In addition to industrial integration and quality issues, Wang Sicheng is most concerned about financing problems. Prior to the Golden Sun project, the state gave investors 50% or even 70% of the funds to build power stations. Today, all the initial investments are to be made by the developers themselves. Developers' funds are needed to generate electricity and sell money for recycling. The financing problem is Very serious. The problem of financing is not solved, and no one in the big market has invested in it.

However, in the eyes of industry experts, although distributed photovoltaics are still “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” compared with the previous Golden Sun project, the subsidy one is at the end and the original speculation has been abandoned. It is already a Great progress.

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