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During the holiday period, a series of economic data released in May included: the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the industrial added value increased by 9.2% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month; fixed asset investment increased by 20.4%, down 0.2 percentage points; exports increased by 1%, down 13.7 percentage points; imports fell by 0.3%, down 17.1%; social financing The total amount was 1.19 trillion yuan, down 57.63 billion yuan from April; the new RMB loan was 667.4 billion yuan, down 125.5 billion yuan from April.
The overall decline in economic data in May led some institutions to begin to cut their forecasts for China's economic growth. “Overall, China's real economy data is significantly lower than expected, inflation has once again showed a downward trend, and credit growth has begun to slow down. China’s economic slowdown is significantly faster than expected,†said Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China. “As a result of poor data performance in May, we have lowered the economic growth rate this year and next year to 7.6% and 7.8%. Previously, they were 7.8% and 8.0% respectively. It should be pointed out that our forecast still faces certain downside risks.†Bank of America Merrill Lynch Group lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth rate in the second quarter from the previous 7.7% to 7.6% to 7.7%.
At the same time, the call for a cut in interest rates has begun to emerge. Liu Ligang said that on the whole, China’s economic recovery has begun to encounter obvious difficulties, which means that monetary policy should be more accommodative. At the same time, as real interest rates begin to turn positive, China also has a relatively obvious space for interest rate cuts. The performance of the real economy, we expect the central bank to cut interest rates soon. "China's monetary policy is facing the possibility of a clear turn."
Some economists said: "When the world economic situation has not improved significantly, the government should not blindly tighten the policy. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the macroeconomic regulation and control policies of all countries in the world have focused on maintaining growth, and China should not be exceptiond. .
This is not the first time someone has come up with a similar point. At the beginning of this month, the market once rumored that the central bank will cut the benchmark interest rate.
Yang Weiwei, senior analyst of macro and fixed income of Lianxun Securities, believes that the current tight funding situation is not what the policy level wants to see. On the one hand, inflation is still at a lower position, and short-term risks are not large; The chain is tight, the economic growth rate is low, and if the funds are tight, it may increase the risk of economic operation. "Historically, the central bank's hedging of short-term foreign exchange holdings has been relatively successful. We believe that the central bank has sufficient tools to supplement the funds, and the central bank may implement the one-off approach of RRR cuts in the short term. â€
However, such views are not widely recognized. Lu Ting, chief economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Greater China, said that even if the CPI growth rate provides room for monetary policy adjustment, it is unlikely that the central bank will start rate cuts and RRR cuts. Unless the adjustment is large, the interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are very limited. In addition, in recent years, the central bank has adopted a method of increasing the interest rate floating range to prepare for the interest rate marketization, and the bank's own adjustment capability has been strengthened. The recent sharp rise in interest rates in the interbank market may be a key concern of the central bank. For the interbank market, the central bank has absolute dominance, and it is expected to adopt a more active and proactive approach to adjust interest rates in the interbank market in the near future. It is expected that after this round, the 7-day repurchase annualized interest rate may return to the level of 3.5%.
Hu Chi, a researcher at the Research Center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, also said that from the trend of regulation and control policies, although economic growth is weak in terms of quantity, it is still in a normal and controllable range. At this stage, the potential growth rate of China's economic growth has declined. At the same time, the economy is in the stage of restructuring, transformation and upgrading, and it is necessary to make time for market operation and economic adjustment. Therefore, there is no need to stimulate the economy and push up the growth rate as before. The central government has repeatedly stated that it should tolerate a lower growth rate than before. Therefore, macroeconomic policies should remain stable and no measures such as interest rate cuts are expected in the near future.
The possibility of a slowdown in economic data in May is highly controversial
Abstract With the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and other departments in May continue to slow down, many institutions have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth rate for the second quarter and this year, and the market is likely to cut interest rates or deposit preparations. Expectations of the gold rate. But from the "economic participation...
With the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and other departments in May continue to slow down, many institutions have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth rate for the second quarter and this year, and the market has begun to cut interest rates or deposit reserves. The rate is expected. However, from the understanding of the situation, the RRR cut is not a mainstream view, and most institutions still prefer monetary policy to remain stable in June.