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Construction Information (09.06): Copper and Aluminum
Jian Jian Information (09.06): Copper and Aluminum recently added a “Risk Warning†column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-term closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tip: Eastern: LME March copper showed a trend of lower volatility this week, but the overall price is still not out of the previous box, compared to the final income at 2720 US dollars / ton, compared with last Friday fell 39 US dollars / t, the fluctuation ranged from 2802 to 2684 U.S. dollars per ton, and the weekly line is a small Yin line with upper and lower leads. LME3 aluminum also showed a trend of oscillating decline, compared to a closing price of US$1660/ton, which was a decrease of US$39.5/ton from last Friday. The fluctuation ranged from US$1710-1164.50/ton. The weekly line is a small Yin line with upper and lower leads. After LME copper stocks fell slightly last week, this week's inventories once again showed a momentum of growth, with an ending inventory of 110,375 tons. This week, LME’s aluminum stocks have once again experienced a sharp reduction in their inventory of 745,100 tons of weekend stocks. Shanghai Stock Exchange copper stocks decreased by 4,300 tons this week, compared to the end of the weekend inventory of 25,712 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 2,902 tons, compared to the final 145,087 tons. In the first half of this week, the price of copper was affected by strikes by South Peruvian copper company Toquepala and Cugjione copper miners, and the US dollar weakened. The price of copper saw a certain marginal upward momentum, but it was blocked at the price of 2800 US dollars. It was rebounded by the dollar in the second half of the week and near the US labor holiday. Affected, the liquidation on the market was heavy, causing the price of copper to fall. In particular, due to the sharp increase of non-agricultural employment in the United States in August of 14.4 million in August, the unemployment rate in August was 5.4%, which promoted the rebound of the US dollar. At the same time, Peru’s Minister of Labor Neves announced that the strikes at the Toquepala and Cugjione copper mines in the Southern Peruvian Copper Company are illegal, which indicates that the strike is likely to end with government intervention, which has a negative impact on copper prices. Under the selling pressure of the fund, the copper price once fell to 2,684 US dollars, and then rebounded late in the role of short covering. Next week's market forecast: From the current trend of copper prices, copper prices are still operating at a high level in a large shock box, but over time, the pressure above the copper price becomes increasingly heavy, directional breakthroughs will appear at any time. Ma Hongqing: LME copper prices bottomed out on Friday's trading. Support on the 2680 line is still very strong. Before the third Wednesday, the bulls may still push the price to 2750 line, but the operation can use this boost. Further short selling. Technically, the price of copper has already begun to deteriorate in the mid-line, and the sharp rise in TC/RC's appearance in the near future indicates that it will become difficult to further squeeze the position. Shanghai CU CU is expected Monday to test 25800 pressure level. Daily commentary: He Haihai: On the 2nd, the LME copper due to market concerns that inventory may continue to increase and the cautious attitude before the release of the US economic data on Friday triggered the sell-off to lower, lowering to $2716.5, but on the 60th The support of the average price to the period price is more obvious. Today, the price of Shanghai copper gapped lower and started to fall after a slight oscillation at the beginning of the session. The market was active and the transaction volume was significantly enlarged. In the intraday period, there was a situation where the recent short bears actively suppressed the market, and market bullishness has shrunk. The fall in prices made the overall atmosphere of the media quite bearish, and the uptrend line of the December K chart was tested. There was no clear trend in the exchange rate market on Thursday, and the market's wait for non-agricultural employment data in the US made trading very cautious. The cancelled warrants for London Copper have rapidly declined from 17,000 tons to about 9,000 tons, and the possibility of increased inventory in the near future has increased. The August non-farm payrolls data will be released on Friday. The market consensus is to increase 160,000 people. However, after the accident in July, anything could happen. Initial jobless claims rose sharply, but had little effect on the dollar. The slowdown in the U.S. economy in June and July will continue in August and the employment data will provide a basis for this. However, other data shows that manufacturing activity remains strong. Technically, after the LME copper formed a short-term inflection point on the previous Wednesday on September 1, the price was adjusted downwards as scheduled. It is expected that this adjustment will continue for some time. Operational advice: Moderate short-selling as the main overseas express delivery: LME market report: London, September 2 news: Affected by the strong dollar, the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark fell by 1.8% on the three-month copper price on Friday on the basis of selling pressure from the fund. It closed at 2,702.5 U.S. dollars, but fell off from a five-week low hit in the session and hit a one-week low of 2,684 U.S. dollars. Peru’s Minister of Labour Neves announced that the strikes at the Toquepala and Cuajone copper mines at Southern Peru Copper were illegal. The news triggered fund selling. The company’s strike began on the 31st. Strike workers said that the strike would not stop until the request they made was approved. After the release of U.S. economic data, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, leading to a three-month fall in copper prices. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased significantly in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent soft landing. As a result, the U.S. dollar rebounded sharply across the board. The stronger US dollar has led to lower demand for copper by investors outside the United States. Analysts said that the US dollar strengthened after the release of favorable economic data in the United States and that copper was under pressure. Calyon analyst Ahmed said: “The dollar has a great influence on copper prices, but supply and demand, as well as the macro situation are also weakening. "Ahmed believes that copper prices will be tested for $2,490 in the coming weeks and will test $2,200 by the end of the year. Not all analysts are so bearish." Stern Bay of Barclays Capital said, "The price of copper is clearly shifting to the trading range." At the low end, many market participants, including funds and consumer companies, used this time to adjust the pickup, so copper prices have recovered from their lows. “Trnbe expects copper prices to remain firm during the year, supported by strong demand in the fourth quarter. The price of nickel fell by 3% in three months and was lower by 12,050 US dollars for the whole day, closing at 12,225 US dollars. Three-month aluminum fell nearly 2% from 1,687 US dollars per ton to 1,654. Intraday hit a low of 1,644.50 since June 15. Sternbe believes that today is a short-term correction and the overall upward trend does not change. COMEX Copper City News: New York, September 2 News: Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) contracted its intraday low of a 9-day low on Friday, but still closed lower, due to speculative selling pressure. The Agricultural Employment Population report came close to analysts' estimates and prompted the dollar to rise. A New York metal trader said, "The trend of the dollar is the reason for the fund's sell-off. When the dollar weakened, they bought a large amount of copper to push up the price, but when the dollar went strong they would It will be put on the market to sell. "But the trader also said, "There was a short-covering buying at the end of the session and a settlement before the weekend. The market has been oversold and there will be some technical buying." After the fund's sell-off pressure, the price fell slightly. However, the short-covering of the short-term fund was used to recover the price slightly. December copper prices fell 85 points to end at 123.95 cents. The day was lower at 122.00 cents and higher at 124.70 cents. After the release of US economic data, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies and became the main reason for the decline in prices. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased significantly in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent soft landing. As a result, the U.S. dollar rebounded sharply across the board. The stronger US dollar has led to lower demand for copper by investors outside the United States. Dealers said that the global demand for copper is on a rising trend, which will provide some support for the price of copper, and will continue to drive price increases in the medium to long term. December copper price support is expected to support 122.00 cents, 121.50 cents and 121.00 cents.