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The March 2015 China Nonferrous Metals Industry Monthly Climate Index, jointly prepared by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Economic Daily, China Economics Industry Climate Index Research Center and National Bureau of Statistics China Economic Climate Monitoring Center, was released recently.
The results of the boom monitoring show that in March 2015, the business climate index of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry was 43.1, down 0.6 points from the previous month; the industry leading index was 76.9, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in the above indicators has narrowed compared to the past, and the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry has stabilized.
Slow and steady trend
“The non-ferrous metal industry prosperity index is still falling, but the index decline has narrowed month by month. The recent industry operation has slowed down and stabilized.†Wang Huajun, deputy secretary general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stressed that the downward pressure is still relatively large. Next, we must fully grasp the fundamentals of the industry.
The data shows that the monthly prosperity index of the non-ferrous metals industry has fallen for 8 consecutive months, and has now fallen to the lower part of the “cold†zone, but the index decline has been narrowing month by month; the leading index has fallen for 9 consecutive months, but The decline in March was 0.6% lower than last month, and there are signs of stabilization.
"In preliminary judgment, China's non-ferrous metal industry production and consumption are expected to continue to operate smoothly in the second quarter." Wang Huajun predicted that in the mid-term and long-term, non-ferrous metals will be intertwined in the three phases of superposition, overcapacity, the strengthening of the US dollar and the downward trend of international commodity prices. The downward pressure on prices is still relatively large, but the price of non-ferrous metals in the second quarter may be stabilized in stages.
Double crushing continues
For some time, the non-ferrous metals market has continued to face adjustment pressures, and the overall business operations are difficult. Zhao Wuzhuang, director of the Policy Research Office of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that there are internal problems that have long been accumulated in the industry, as well as the external environment.
At present, the non-ferrous metal industry is subject to the double squeeze of “price drop and cost increaseâ€. Environmental costs, labor costs, and financial costs have risen rigidly. The income from the main business of the non-ferrous metal industry has reached 93 yuan, which is about 7.5 yuan higher than the national industrial average. “Double extrusion†has made the non-ferrous metal industry more difficult to operate and the business risks have risen.
Grasp the opportunity to accelerate adjustment
"The development of non-ferrous metals industry is entering a period of strategic adjustment. Enterprises must recognize the general trend and rely on real effort to win market competition." Jia Xing, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, reminded enterprises to take a correct attitude toward current adjustments. It has passed, but the market just needs to exist forever, and innovation and development are just the right time.
From the perspective of the development of the global non-ferrous metals industry, the problem of overcapacity of major non-ferrous metal production capacity such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc is highlighted. It is expected that with the rise of India, ASEAN and other countries and regions in the future, the new development momentum of the industry will gradually take shape, and it is now a phase of adjustment before and after the development period. China's non-ferrous metals industry will be able to overcome the current difficulties and achieve new leapfrogs by accelerating the transfer mode and restructuring.
First, accelerate the transition from incremental expansion to stock optimization. China's major non-ferrous metals industry can no longer take the path of capacity expansion, but should shift its development focus to stock optimization. Second, grasp the strategic opportunity of implementing the “Belt and Roadâ€, strengthen international production capacity cooperation, and realize comprehensive interconnection and interoperability of the industry. Third, strive to implement the "Made in China 2025" strategy. First, promote the construction of digital mines and smart factories, and realize the intelligentization of the production process; second, vigorously develop intelligent products and intelligent materials to provide support for the development of integrated circuits and robots; thirdly, realize the integration of industries through Internet + technology. Reshape the industrial value chain system.
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Analysis of the trend of non-ferrous metals prices in the second quarter of 2015
Abstract Under the multiple backgrounds of “three-phase†superposition, overcapacity and international commodity price decline, the pressure of medium and long-term price decline of non-ferrous metals is still relatively large, but the price of non-ferrous metals in the second quarter may be stabilized in stages. Under the new normal, there are...
Under the multiple backgrounds of “three phases†superposition, overcapacity and international commodity prices, the pressure on the medium and long-term price of non-ferrous metals is still relatively large, but the price of non-ferrous metals in the second quarter may be stabilized in stages. Under the new normal, non-ferrous industries should accelerate the optimization of stocks, strengthen international capacity cooperation, and strive to implement the "Made in China 2025" strategy to achieve innovative development.