Since 2011, people have experienced the deepest price increase from the daily life of ordinary people to the production and operation of enterprises. "Let the price fly" for a time to become a lot of people say a word. According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 15, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.9% year-on-year in January; the national industrial product price index (PPI) rose by 6.6% year-on-year and continued to rise.

At present, prices have become the most concern to the government. On February 27, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed in an online exchange with the majority of netizens: “I know the impact of price on a country and I know it’s extremely important. Please believe that every day I pay attention to prices and understand the market every day. People will not allow prices to rise too fast without being contained." Since 2011, people have felt the deepest price increases from the daily lives of ordinary people to the production and operation of enterprises. "Let the price fly" for a time to become a lot of people say a word. According to the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 15, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.9% year-on-year in January; the national industrial product price index (PPI) rose by 6.6% year-on-year and continued to rise.

At present, prices have become the most concern to the government. On February 27, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed in an online exchange with the majority of netizens: “I know the impact of price on a country and I know it's extremely important. Please believe that every day I pay attention to prices and understand the market every day. People will not allow prices to rise too fast without being contained."

As a basic industry closely related to people's production and living, the chemical industry is also showing a trend of rising prices. How did the price of chemical products rise? With the government's determination to control prices, what will happen to the chemical industry in 2011?

Bulk products are all on the price increase on February 27. Wenyue said when responding to netizens, this price increase is not a matter for a country in China, and it is universal in the world. From November to January, the international food price rose by 15% in less than three months; due to the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price has approached 100 US dollars per barrel; in some emerging countries, the CPI index exceeds 7% or 8%. Some even reached 10%.

The reporter interviewed chemical sub-sectors such as chemical fertilizers, resins, methanol, chlor-alkali, and tires, and found that chemical products have also been involved in the tide of price increases. The prices of most products are rising.

A sales person of Zhongyuan Dahua Company of Henan Coal Chemical Group told the reporter: “Compared with before the holiday, urea prices have shown a steady upward trend. At present, the urea price is about 2,000 yuan/ton, which is 100~200 higher than the previous year. RMB/ton.Our current urea is basically out of stock and sold out. The company received a lot of orders years ago and was supported by orders, which directly led to a good production situation in the years to come.”

Li Erchao, head of the sales department of Shijiazhuang Bopo Zhengyuan Fertilizer Co., Ltd., said: “We have no time to rest during the New Year's Thirty Years. We have a day off on the first day of the first month. Starting from the second day of the first month of the month, the daily urea output is very large. Basically, the daily export volume is more than 1,000 tons, and the highest one is 1490 tons. The urea price is now 1,970 yuan/ton, which is also higher than that of the previous year."

“Since the beginning of the first month of the sixth month, there were farmers who bought phosphate fertilizers and sold 600 tons in one day. One day it rained and sold 200 tons, which is rare in previous years. The price of phosphate fertilizers is also higher than before the holiday. Nearly 200 yuan, "said relevant person in Jiangxi Guixi Fertilizer Co., Ltd.

Resin products are also "ups and downs", and major companies have announced that they will increase product prices. BASF announced that since February 1, 2011, or in accordance with the contract, all MDI products price increase 0.05 US dollars / pound. DSM has increased the prices of all its liquid acrylic resins, thermoplastic acrylic resins and polyurethanes sold in the Asia Pacific region by 0.1 to 0.15 US dollars/kg since December 1, 2010, or according to the contract. Akzo Nobel's Powder Coating Business Unit announced that since March 1, 2011, the price of all powder coating products sold on the Chinese market has been increased by 10% to 20%.

Regarding tires, the latest data from the Department of Commerce of Shandong Province showed that in January, the value of tire exports from Shandong Province to US trade reached US$110 million, an increase of 88.1%, and the average export price increased by 27.1%, far exceeding the domestic sales of tires. About 20% increase in price.

In terms of chlor-alkali, a sales person in Inner Mongolia Yili Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. stated that after the Spring Festival, the price of PVC rose by about RMB 200/t compared with that before the holiday. Currently, the ex-factory price of PVC is RMB 7,750/ton. The company is now It is full production.

This year's fertilizer market started earlier than in previous years. On the sixth day of the first month, Jiangxi Guixi Fertilizer Co., Ltd. had farmers to buy fertilizer.

What is the reason for the rise in prices of chemical products?

“The vast majority of chemical products prices have risen, and the large increase is reasonable, because of the energy and the closely related to chemical production,” Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Information and Marketing Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said in an interview with CCIN reporters. The prices of resource-based products have risen sharply, such as the general rise in prices of crude oil, coal, natural gas, chemical mines, and raw salt, etc. The sharp rise in energy and resource costs, increase in the cost of labor, and the increase in corporate management costs are the main reasons for the rise in prices of chemical products. The reason is that the rise in the price of products is largely driven by cost, and now the price of chemical products has risen, but the rise in raw material prices has been transmitted in the industry chain."

According to specific analysis, the current international crude oil price has approached 100 US dollars per barrel, and further rising momentum is strong; some urea production using anthracite lump coal to the factory price has reached 1,700 yuan / ton; original salt price is also approaching 400 yuan / ton; In terms of phosphate ore, since the beginning of this year, due to the influence of cold currents and freezing rain, phosphate mining in some areas has basically been stagnant. Local manufacturers have successively raised the ex-factory price of phosphate ore. Phosphate ore prices in Guizhou and other places have risen to RMB 450/t; the price of phosphate rock in Yunnan Province has risen by 32%.

The above views were agreed with other interviewees. The person in charge of Jiangxi Guixi Chemical Fertilizer Co., Ltd. said: “The raw materials for the production of phosphate fertilizers have all gone up. The price of phosphate rock and ammonium chloride are all rising. So the company has increased the price of products based on the accounting cost.” The person in charge also said that the price of methanol also rose due to rising costs. Since the third quarter of last year, the national coal price has increased by 150 to 300 yuan per ton, the cost of methanol companies has increased 350 to 650 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive cost has increased from 2,200 to 2,300 yuan per ton in the first three quarters of last year to the current Above 2,500 yuan, the price of methanol was forced to rise. Jia Qiuyu, a chemical analyst at Yide Brokers Co., Ltd., said that ethylene vinyl chloride is also a follow-up product, followed by international crude oil prices, but its growth is far lower than the increase in commodities. The price of calcium carbide process polyvinyl chloride is supported by the expected increase in electricity coal. Zhang Hongmin, chairman of Shandong Rubber Industry Association, said that the most important cost increase in the tire industry came from natural rubber raw materials, “Now the price of natural rubber** is around 42,000 yuan per ton, and the spot price also reaches more than 40,000 yuan per ton. More than doubled over the same period last year."

In addition, the reporter also learned that there was a special reason for the rise in prices of chemical products at the beginning of this year: short-term supply of products in local areas was in short supply. The reason is that at the end of last year, all localities to complete the "Eleventh Five-Year" energy-saving emission reduction targets, urea, methanol and other high-energy-consuming industries to cut power, resulting in the company's production cuts, so inventory and middlemen holdings are low. At the beginning of the new year, many industries showed a "good-going" scene of rising prices. For example, in the first quarter of this year, compared with the same period of last year, the domestic urea supply is expected to decrease by about 8.5 million tons, and it is estimated that prices may rise further in the short term. The most typical is methanol. At the end of last year, various energy-saving emission reduction targets for the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” were completed. High-energy-consuming enterprises including methanol were all required to limit production or stop production. At least 10 million tons of methanol plant capacity in the country could not be realized. As a result, the supply of methanol from stock suddenly dropped and pushed up prices. The price of methanol once reached a high price of 3,600 yuan/ton in late November last year. However, with the end of last year's energy conservation and emission reduction activities, the methanol utilization rate has increased, and the market supply situation has ended. By the end of 2010, the mainstream price of methanol once fell back to about 2,800 yuan/ton.

However, since 2011, the price of methanol has approached 3,000 yuan/ton.

The test of the high-cost era The chemical industry, driven by high costs and rising prices, has been questioned by industry insiders in the context of overcapacity.

First of all, from the perspective of macroeconomic policies, the government has been determined to stabilize prices. Wen said that when it communicated with netizens, it was necessary to adopt four measures to stabilize prices. The first was to control currency liquidity, that is, to control the price of money. The second is to strive to develop production, especially agricultural production. Third, we must improve circulation. Fourth, we must manage the market well. In controlling currency liquidity, the country has begun to move. Since February 9, 2011, the one-year benchmark deposit rate of financial institutions has been raised by 0.25 percentage points. On January 14 and February 24, the People's Bank of China raised the deposit reserve ratio of depository financial institutions by 0.5% respectively. The further tightening of monetary policy has, to some extent, increased the financial pressure on companies. A survey of the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed that the proportion of companies reporting “fund shortage” and “difficulties in capital withdrawal” increased in January and February.

Yang Zhichang, a German industrial product analyst, accepted an interview with CCIN reporters: “In January, the 6.6% increase in PPI was larger than the 4.9% increase in CPI, indicating that the PPI and CPI were in a contrarian trend, revealing that the price transmission was not smooth. The most profound understanding of this is the production companies in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain. Because, as they go downstream, the costs of rising all the way are more difficult to pass on, and only the profit margins are squeezed out, and they are able to absorb the increased costs."

Second, overcapacity seriously determines that the price increase cannot be sustained. Zhu Sheng said: "The cost of raw material price increases should be transmitted downwards through the industry chain of the article's source Global Polyurethane Network, which supports the rise in prices of chemical products, but the key to ultimately determining the price rise and fall is supply and demand. Some should have The price of the products cannot be raised. It is precisely because these products have excess capacity, competition is fierce, and prices are weak. In this sense, the chemical industry will face the double challenge of high costs and excess production capacity.”

It is understood that the issue of overcapacity in the urea, methanol, and tire industries is not optimistic. In this situation, raw material price increase factors may not be able to conduct smoothly. For example, this year's domestic methanol overcapacity is a foregone conclusion and the operating rate is relatively low. However, as long as the price of methanol rises above the cost line, many devices will start quickly and increase supply in a short period of time, causing the market price to fall.

This is also true for the tire industry that is currently attracting attention. According to the statistics of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, China’s tire production capacity was surplus in 2010, and more than 47% of products rely on the export market to digest, and the domestic market is extremely cruel. Yang Zhichang said: "In the case of natural rubber prices rose sharply, the international tire giant has repeatedly raised the tire prices, but if the domestic tire price increases more than 10% it is difficult to get customer recognition, under normal circumstances can only increase prices 5% ~ At 6%, the bargaining power for price increases is relatively low. The rise in other raw materials can only be partially absorbed by the factory through cost reduction and productivity improvement.”

I wish Zhu Yan reminded: "The current round of product price increases in general, is an inspiration to chemical companies, that is, business managers should be ready to deal with high-cost era, learn to better allocate resources, save more material consumption, improve The process of product upgrading and production of high value-added products, so the current price increase is a pressure on the enterprise, but also will prompt companies to find some new breakthroughs and development opportunities, and then promote industrial restructuring." Crude oil prices remain high, but domestic demand for refined oil is also steadily climbing. As of February 15, PetroChina Dalian Petrochemical Company produced a total of more than 1 million tons of diesel No. 0 this year and supplied more than 600,000 tons of diesel oil to the market, setting a record high.