The domestic economic growth slowed down, and commodity prices have undergone major adjustments this year. Among them, the price of natural rubber was once set at a new low in five years. However, due to the recent introduction of the micro-stimulus policy and improved liquidity, many commodity prices have rebounded. A few days ago, at the 9th West Lake Forum on swordsmanship organized by CITIC, many people in the natural rubber industry stated that the reform of domestic rubber standards and the rumors of storage and storage will affect the market in the short term, but at the supply and demand level The improvement will take time. Before the first half of next year, the domestic natural rubber market is still under pressure.

Commodity performance is closely related to macroeconomics. "In the course of this round of economic recovery, the differential development of different regional economies in the world has become more and more obvious, which brings many uncertainties to the future economic development." Jingchuan, deputy general manager and chief analyst of CITIC, said that the current domestic economy In the period of structural adjustment, the biggest problem is de-leveraging and de-stocking. With the introduction of micro-stimulus policies and the release of liquidity, the adjustment cycle may be prolonged and will face greater pressure in the first half of next year, but after a round of Adjustments are expected in the Chinese economy in the third quarter of next year.

As a recent focus in the industry, the impact of amendments to the national standards for composite rubber on the natural rubber industry has also become a topic of heated discussion among participants. “The revision of compound rubber GB will not change the supply and demand situation of natural rubber.” Shen Wei, general manager of Shanghai Hujulian Industry Co., Ltd. said that although the national standard revision has boosted a wave of rally, the overall supply and demand imbalance of natural rubber is currently The situation has not been effectively improved.

It is understood that at the end of October the market came out with a revised national standard for compound rubber, the key point being that the proportion of natural rubber should not exceed 88%. At present, the proportion of natural rubber in the market's compound rubber is between 95% and 99.5%. The industry generally believes that the new standard will inhibit the import of rubber compounded by downstream tire companies. The future demand of tire companies will turn to standard rubber or even all-latex, and the increase in consumption will support the price of standard rubber and latex.

Shen Wei believes that after the implementation of the new standard of compound rubber GB, it will increase the expenditure of downstream tire companies in the rubber compounding, tire formulation and other aspects, which will in turn raise the production cost of tire companies and affect their operating profits. However, from the perspective of industry integration, due to better adaptability than small and medium-sized tire companies, the competitive advantages of large-scale tire companies will also be further manifested.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the price of natural rubber has oscillated weakly, and the trend market has become more difficult to grasp. As a result, the spread arbitrage opportunities in different months are more concerned. “The current May contract price is higher than the main contract in January, which provides an opportunity for buying arbitrage operations that are far away.” Wang Weibo, general manager of Shanghai Yingjin Investment Co., Ltd. explained that it is due to the development of the solar water price , resulting in continuous accumulation of overall inventory. In addition, the price of natural rubber in China is relatively higher than that of imported No. 20 rubber, which further increases the pressure on the stock. He believes that in the absence of a clear trend in the market, the arbitrage operation for buying the January contract and dropping the May contract is relatively simple, but the profit margin is limited.

For the issue of storage and storage in the hot natural rubber market, Wang Weibo believes that in the natural rubber bear market, the role of purchasing and storage is a drop in the bucket. Since the natural rubber supply elasticity is very small, the capacity of the main producing country is limited, especially the current high-yield period in the major producing countries in Southeast Asia. The pressure on the supply side will become more apparent. Although there are many speculations in the current market, it may stimulate a rebound in the market, but as long as there is no major adjustment in the structure of supply and demand, natural rubber will remain weak in the future, and the possibility of prices falling below the previous low may not be ruled out.

Wang Haibin, an investment consulting director of Oak Valley, believes that the more psychological impact is on the storage, but the actual impact on the market is not significant. Even if it comes to storage, there are two issues that need to be considered: first, the purchase price, and second, the re-processed selling price. At the same time, he also stated that after the price of natural rubber dropped continuously, it has already approached the cost line in some regions. In the future, the main producing areas may experience a reduction in production risks due to cost reductions, and the reduction in production intensity will also become a point of view in the market.