In recent days, the shortage of diesel fuel has not slowed down due to the emergency response of all parties. Instead, it has been spreading into many fields with increasing intensity. Some companies have stopped production, production and transportation companies have become “**”, and buses have been waiting for a long time. The price of vegetables was even higher due to transportation difficulties. In Chongqing, due to the lack of oil in funeral homes, some families began to search for the remains of diesel cremation. This unexpected diesel shortage is currently spreading to first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

Statistics from authoritative departments such as the Development and Reform Commission show us another picture. According to the estimation of relevant departments such as the National Energy Administration, due to the country’s new refining capacity of more than 20 million tons in 2010, the overall market for refined oil products, including the diesel market, will still exceed supply.

Obviously the overall overcapacity, why suddenly turned "hard to ask everywhere", people can not help asking diesel where to go?

"Two barrels of oil" low-cost diesel exports from the Customs data show that the first three quarters of this year, 21.02 million tons of refined oil exports, an increase of 23.4%, of which 2.09 million tons of refined oil exports, exports of 386,100 tons of diesel, an increase of 25.3 %.

According to industry sources, during the first nine months of this year, the production of refined oil products increased significantly. PetroChina and Sinopec two groups in order to digest inventory, complete quarterly sales tasks, desperately increase exports, and constantly apply to the Ministry of Commerce to increase export quotas for refined oil, even at low prices. Price exports.

Customs statistics show that in September and October, the average price of refined oil exports decreased significantly. However, shortly afterwards, diesel fuel shifted from the first nine months of increasing exports and diverting stocks to oil shortages. What caused this sudden and sudden turnaround?

The analysis of the causes of the shortage of diesel fuel led to many queries. PetroChina recently announced six major causes of the current diesel shortage on its official website: 1. The international crude oil prices remain high, and the domestic oil prices have become increasingly serious with the international oil prices. Some local oil refining Due to serious losses, enterprises and social oil refineries have already cut production significantly or even stopped production. Second, with the slow recovery of the world economy, China's gasoline and diesel ratio has started to rise again, diesel demand has further increased, and the fourth quarter of each year is refined oil. Especially in the peak season of diesel consumption, the quantity is small and the demand is large, so the gap is more obvious. Fourth, due to the need for overhaul of domestic refinery equipment in August and September, September and October are in the season of diesel sales, which has accelerated The emergence of diesel shortages; 5. “Assault-type power cuts” directly promoted the rapid formation of diesel shortages; 6. Private venture capital speculation also affected the supply of diesel to a certain extent, due to the current phenomenon of “pending and inverting” of diesel oil. Many factors have exacerbated the diesel shortage.

However, the analysis of the causes of the relevant experts from PetroChina has caused many questions in the industry. First of all, this time the diesel shortage occurred on October 26 after the domestic refined oil price increases, the domestic refined oil prices have been gradually straightened and with the international standards, why do you say that "inverted increasingly serious?" Secondly, the reason for the sixth point mentioned that the phenomenon of "pumping upside down" of diesel fuel is serious. Since the wholesale price has continued to rise, it has caused the wholesale contraction. This proves that it is profitable to refine the oil and stimulate production when resources are tight. The actual situation is exactly the same, news from Shandong shows that this round of oil shortage has led to the revival of hundreds of refineries. Small oil refineries are not hesitating to try their own ways under the drive of interests. Will the refining companies cut production and stop production? Third, since it is known that the fourth quarter of each year is the peak season for diesel sales, why not prepare in advance and explain how to explain how to increase exports to destocking in the first nine months of the year? Fourth, since September and October are all peak seasons for diesel consumption, why are some domestic refineries biased for maintenance at this time? Fifth, with the slow recovery of the world economy, the further increase in China's diesel demand, coupled with "surprise-style power cuts" are indeed the objective reasons for the shortage of diesel this year, but the demand for diesel oil should increase gradually with the economic recovery. In the process, are the relevant departments and companies not implementing the necessary monitoring and early warning of diesel consumption? The power cut is only a phenomenon in some provinces and autonomous regions. Why is this round of oil shortages "abrupt" and "big area" in the country?

"The gap between supply and demand and shortage of resources are part of the reason for this oil shortage, but not all of them are fundamental," said an energy expert who declined to be named.

Institutional misalignment behind the diesel shortage According to the current "Petroleum Prices Management Measures", when crude oil prices in the international market change for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly. “International oil prices have brought about price adjustments for the domestic market. When domestic refined oil prices lag behind in adjustments, they tend to adversely affect the market,” said Deng Yusong, director of the Integrated Research Office of the Institute of Market Economy at the State Council Development Research Center.

In fact, it is precisely this “reverse regulation effect” that led to the “strange phase” of the sudden outbreak of diesel fuel. Taking the current shortage of diesel supply as an example, the question that has been questioned by the public is that why the increasing inventory capacity has not played a role in alleviating the supply gap. Experts believe that in September, crude oil prices in the international market continued to decline. Under the expectation of price adjustment, domestic circulation links have reduced inventory in order to cope with possible downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices. Since October, international oil prices have continued to rise. Affected by this, diesel inventories have continued to increase. The lagging pricing mechanism failed to rationalize the allocation of diesel inventory.

Monopoly and hoarding factors are also the underlying causes of diesel shortage. According to the data from the Economic Development and Reform Commission’s Economic Operations Regulation Bureau, the country’s diesel production increased by 12.4% in the first three quarters of this year, and its growth rate accelerated by 10 percentage points year-on-year. An energy expert who did not want to be named told reporters that this is a relatively high rate of production growth. Since diesel is easier to store than petrol, there will be people hoarding diesel for profit before almost every time the refined oil price adjustment window opens. In the absence of sustained and significant fluctuations in demand, the possibility of shortage of diesel fuel due to hoarding is relatively high. The government should trace the whereabouts of finished diesel.