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A: Statistical data The total industrial output value of the whole industry achieved a growth rate of 12%. From January to November 2009, the machine tool industry completed a total industrial output value of 349.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; the industry sales revenue of 331.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 12.2%; realized profit of 17.64 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year; product sales revenue margin was 5.3%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.
In addition, the sales rate of industrial products in the machine tool industry reached 97.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period in 2008. The accumulated annual fixed assets investment in the industry increased by 35.8% year-on-year.
From the perspective of sub-sectors, from January to November 2009, the output of Jinchee machine tools was 565,961 units, down 15.9% year-on-year; the profit of Jinchee machine tool industry was 4.52 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year; the profit margin of product sales revenue was 5.2%. , a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year on year. Among them, the output of CNC gold-cutting machine tools reached 129,298 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%.
In terms of imports and exports, from January to November 2009, the cumulative import of machine tool products was US$8.69 billion, down 23.4% year-on-year. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was US$5.3 billion, down 23.9% year-on-year.
The export of machine tool products was US$4.23 billion, down 35.7% year-on-year; the export of metal processing machine tools was US$1.26 billion, down 35% year-on-year.
The import and export deficit of machine tools was 4.46 billion US dollars, of which metal processing machine tool deficit was 4.04 billion US dollars.
The output value and market share of domestic metal processing machine tools continue to increase, with an estimated 70%. The market share of domestic CNC machine tools is expected to reach 63%.
B: The function of operating characteristic economic stimulus measures is obvious. The industrial output value of the industry is increasing month by month. In 2009, the economic measures implemented by the state to deal with the financial crisis gradually showed the pulling effect of the machine tool industry. The overall operation of the industry was stable and the industrial output value of the whole industry increased month by month. The sales rate of products is stable at around 97%. In the mainframe industry, the growth rate of the total output value of the metal cutting machine industry lags behind that of other sub-sectors; the growth rate of forming machine tools is basically the same as the industry average.
Due to the low base in the second half of 2008, since July 2009, the monthly gross industrial output of the machine tool industry has reached double-digit growth.
The growth rate of the total industrial output value of the five types of machine tool enterprises within the statistical scope of the National Bureau of Statistics has increased year-on-year, among which privately-held enterprises and other types of enterprises have achieved a relatively high growth rate of 21.4% and 22.8%, respectively; The number of enterprises has turned from negative to positive, increasing by 4.8%; the degree of decline of state-owned enterprises has slowed down from the first half of the year to -5.7%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises have developed better than the first half of the year, and the decline has been greatly narrowed. -8.1% and -10.5%.
Jinchee machine tool has not yet fully recovered. From the perspective of sub-sectors, Jinchao Machine Tool Industry has accumulated negative growth in total industrial output value for five consecutive months since April 2009. It was flat from January to September and slightly increased from January to November. %, showing signs of a rebound. According to the statistics of the long-term completion of the production and sales of 230 key enterprises, the total industrial output value of 130 gold cutting machine tools accounts for more than 60% of the total output value of the metal cutting machine industry within the statistical scope of the National Bureau of Statistics. The output value of Jinchee machine tools of these 130 key contact enterprises increased by -6% year-on-year in the first quarter; -7.1% in the first to second quarters; -6.1% in the first to third quarters; -7.7% in January-November. From the analysis of the monthly industrial output value of these 130 companies, March, June, September and November are four high points, both exceeding 5 billion yuan. November was the highest annual output value, reaching 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1%. Except for the above-mentioned months, other months are more volatile. It can be seen that the annual trend of the gold cutting machine tool industry is not stable and does not show a rebound trend. It can also be inferred that the gold cutting machine tool industry has not yet shaken off the negative growth situation.
Other metal processing machinery, foundry machinery, machine tool accessories, abrasives, metal forming machine tools and other small industries achieved double-digit growth in product sales from January to November; sales revenue of woodworking machinery, gold cutting machine tools, measuring tools and measuring instruments The year-on-year growth rate is lower than the industry average, but it has shaken off the negative growth situation.
The decline in corporate profits has narrowed According to national statistics, the accumulated industry profits in February, June, August, and November were lower than the same period of the previous year, but the decline quickly narrowed.
The operating conditions of the gold cutting machine tools, forming machine tools, measuring tools and machine tool accessories industry lag behind other sub-sectors in terms of better performance. Among the eight sub-sectors in the industry, the profit margin of the cutting tool industry was the largest, close to 30%; the profit of the gold cutting, forming machine tools and accessories industry decreased by about 7%. The profit of the above four sub-sectors was lower than the industry average of -1.8%. Woodworking machinery, abrasives, and foundry machinery industry achieved single-digit growth in profits; other metal processing machinery profits increased by up to 35%.
From January to November, the sales revenue of the whole industry products was 5.3%. Only the abrasives industry's profit margin exceeded the industry average of 6.7%; the foundry machinery industry and the industry's profit margins were flat; the gold cutting machine profit margin was 5.2%; the other industry's profit margins were less than 5%.
From January to November, the profit margin of industrial products sales increased by 0.2 percentage points from January to August, and increased by 1.2 percentage points from January to May. The improvement of corporate profit rate has improved the fund situation. According to the recent sample survey of 80 key enterprises by the association, half of the company's funds can maintain normal operation; 11 companies have sufficient funds; 29 enterprises with tight capital conditions.
The deep decline of both import and export was affected by the financial crisis, and the international machine tool market continued to be sluggish. The export of China's machine tool industry turned from a rapid growth in previous years to a deep decline; market competition became more intense, and the unit price of export machine tools fell sharply; Europe, Japan And some emerging markets are underperforming, compared to Asian developing markets, which are less affected.
Except for February, the monthly export value of machine tool products in the first 11 months of 2009 remained at around US$400 million, and the monthly export volume of metalworking machine tools remained at around US$110 million. It is estimated that the export of machine tools and metalworking machine tools will be year-on-year. It will fall by about 35%.
Recent export data show that the unit price of export CNC machine tools continues to fall, and the average unit price has dropped by 25%. According to the analysis of relevant persons of the association, the reason for the decline in unit price may be the fierce market competition and the active price reduction behavior of enterprises in order to seize the market. Therefore, the Association reminds that China's machine tool industry should adjust the structure of export products in time to the changes in the international market, ensure the reasonable profits of enterprises, and avoid vicious competition.
In addition, in the case of a decrease in the unit price of the overall machine tool export, the unit price of several types of machine tools continues to rise, such as horizontal machining centers, gantry machining centers, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC gantry milling machines, CNC grinding machines, CNC lathes, forging or stamping machines. , cutting machine tools, etc. It is understood that the increase in the unit price of these types of machine tools is related to the current large-scale machine tool export situation. However, due to the relatively low export volume and value of these products, it has not been able to reverse the downward trend in the overall export unit price. Therefore, one of the directions for the structural adjustment of export products should be to strive to expand the export of this part of the machine tool.
In 2009, China's export market structure continued to change. China's exports of metal processing machine tools from Europe, Japan and the BRIC countries to India, Brazil and Russia fell sharply, but exports to Mexico and Asian countries declined less and even increased. . Therefore, the Association recommends that companies should focus on the Asian market.
Although the export situation is not optimistic, China's machine tool industry exports have maintained a good trade structure. However, in 2009, China's machine tool import trade mode has undergone major changes, investment trade has decreased, and general trade has increased. According to the association, the main reason for the decline in machine tool imports by more than 20% for the whole year is the decrease in the import value of foreign-invested enterprises.
Taking the CNC metal processing machine tools in the first half of 2009 as an example, the foreign-invested import volume decreased by 26% year-on-year, and the proportion of all imports was less than 50%. In the past, foreign-invested trade imported metal processing machine tools accounted for metal processing machine tool imports. The total amount is over 60%. In the first half of 2009, the volume of general trade imports increased by 31% year-on-year, accounting for 48% of all metal processing machine tool imports, an increase of 15 percentage points year-on-year.
In addition, another feature of the industry's imports is the continuous optimization of the import structure and the increase in the proportion of high-end machine tools. From January to November 2009, the average unit price of imported machine tools was US$89,000, an increase of 6% over the same period in 2008. At the same time, there have been some changes in the source of imports. The number of machine tools imported from the United States, Japan, and Taiwan has decreased drastically, and the number of machine tools imported from European countries such as Germany, Italy, and France has continued to grow.
The main reason for the deep decline in import and export is that it is affected by the financial crisis. However, it is worth noting that the trade deficit of China's machine tool industry has gradually decreased since it reached a peak of 7.32 billion US dollars in 2006. The full year deficit in 2009 will not exceed $5 billion.
The market demand to the high-end development financial crisis has different impacts on China's machine tool market demand. Many industries have reduced equipment purchases, but some industries such as railways, aviation, and automobiles still have demand for machine tools, and as the country is centered on structural adjustment. The implementation of a series of industrial policies, these needs are constantly being released. In this context, the demand for economical CNC machine tools has shrunk, and the demand for popular and high-end CNC machine tools continues to grow.
The statistics of 230 key contact enterprises show that the numerical control rate of machine tool output and the unit price of machine tools are increasing. The main reason is that the output of Jinchee machine tool is larger than that of CNC machine cutting machine. The economical CNC machine tool in CNC machine tools has a significant decline. In addition, the increase in the proportion of heavy-duty machine tools produced by enterprises in the industry is also one of the factors that increase the unit price of machine tools.
The numerical control rate of the output value of metal processing machine tools of key enterprises was 52.7%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. The numerical control rate of the output value of the gold cutting machine tool was 54.1%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year. The numerical control rate of the production value of forming machine tools was 45.8%, an increase of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year.
The output of gold-cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 24.7% and 7.4%, respectively, and the decline was narrowed month by month.
The average unit price of Jinqie machine tools and CNC gold-cutting machine tools was 194,000 yuan and 409,000 yuan respectively, which were 23% and 11% higher than the same period of last year.
Of particular concern is the demand for large machine tools in the market in recent years. According to the survey of the user industry by the association, as the procurement of key projects such as energy and ships is basically in place, there will be some variables in the market demand. The company should be cautious about the expected future large machine tool market.
C: Industrial upgrading and structural adjustment are still core tasks Under the influence of the financial crisis, developed countries have vigorously developed high-tech and increased R&D investment to prepare for the next round of industrial upgrading in the post-financial crisis era. The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference also proposed to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Focus on improving the pertinence and flexibility of policies based on new situations and new situations.
“To maintain a moderate growth in investment, focus on completing projects under construction and strictly controlling new projects†means that the state will use limited financial resources to encourage enterprises to develop high-tech products, create technologies that are conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction, and benefit The three rural areas and the improvement of people's livelihood will not sacrifice the environment for the growth of the economy, and the restrictions on the "two high and one capital" products will be stricter. The Copenhagen conference puts more pressure on countries to reduce carbon emissions. In such a macro environment, the machine tool industry should continue to pay attention to structural adjustment and industrial upgrading in key areas.
Focus on national investment focus Since August 2009, China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association has conducted research on a number of user industries. The results show that the country's huge investment in aviation, automobile, railway, green energy, shipbuilding, electronic information and other industries has driven the market demand structure. To the high end. The state's investment in these key areas is not only to deal with the financial crisis, to expand domestic demand, but also to focus on the long-term development goal of structural adjustment. This indicates that structural adjustment is still the focus of work in these industries in the post-crisis era. In particular, China is also subject to foreign technology blockades in many key areas. Therefore, structural adjustment will be based on independent innovation, which will bring opportunities to the machine tool industry.
The Association recommends that enterprises should pay attention to key investment areas, gain a deep understanding of user processes, increase efforts in research and development of products, eliminate backward products and production capacity as soon as possible, and avoid vicious competition. At the same time, they should boldly try to "specialize, fine, special" industries and Product transfer.
The high-speed railway track plate grinding machine developed by Weihai Huadong CNC Machine Tool Company and Hangzhou Machine Tool Group is an example of success in the development of “special machineâ€. There are still many areas that need to fill in the gaps, such as aircraft belt spreaders, aircraft automatic drilling riveting machines, textile machine needle special machine tools, human joints and prosthetics, and Other Parts processing equipment for health care. At present, these devices mainly rely on imports, and some even banned sales in China. Therefore, we can only open new markets based on independent innovation and the development of imported alternative products that meet the needs of users.
The data shows that the import of machine tool parts continued to increase in 2009, which indicates that the domestic machine tool parts can not meet the needs of the host industry. Component companies should seize the opportunity of market growth, develop new products, and accelerate structural adjustment.
Strengthening effective management According to the Association's survey of 80 key enterprises, the shortage of new orders is extremely common, a quarter less than the same period in 2008. In addition, half of the companies have experienced user delays in picking up or returning goods. This indicates that the market that enterprises will face in the future will not be optimistic. Enterprises should improve the efficiency of management, increase the liquidity turnover rate, increase the input-output ratio, and ensure the efficiency of enterprises.
Expanding industry exports According to the current global economic situation, the industry must maintain the export of advantageous products such as traditional machine tools, tools, heavy-duty machine tools and forming machine tools. In response to the current fast-growing Asian market, we will achieve the goal of exporting medium and high-end machine tools in batches by expanding publicity and providing comprehensive after-sales services. In particular, the agreement between China and the ASEAN Free Trade Area came into effect on January 1, 2010. Most of the merchandise trade enjoys zero tariffs. Chinese enterprises should use this convenient condition to pay attention to the needs of the ASEAN market and strengthen the export of medium and high-end machine tools. Enterprises with overseas mergers and acquisitions should break through the export of high-end machine tools through overseas channels. In addition, government foreign aid projects and government loans can be used to expand exports of machine tool industry products and technologies.
Inventory 2009: The machine tool industry is generally stable
In recent years, the rapid adjustment of product structure and the national economic stimulus package have become the basis and guarantee for China's machine tool industry to withstand the financial crisis. Not long ago, China Machine Tool Industry Association held the sixth executive director (expansion) meeting in Wuhan. The meeting analyzed the economic operation of the machine tool industry in 2009. The association believes that the development of the machine tool industry in 2009 showed a trend of pre-suppression and post-up, and overall stabilization. Specifically, the profit decline has narrowed, the number of loss-making enterprises has decreased; the investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate; both imports and exports have declined in depth, and the deficit has further narrowed; the import of foreign-invested CNC machine tools has decreased, and the import of general trade has increased substantially; market demand continues to High-end development; the domestic machine tool market share is further enhanced.