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How to treat GDP growth rate "East slow west fast" (on)
As of August 19, the economic data of the first half of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities were all "released." The data shows that except for Gansu, the GDP growth rate of the remaining 30 provinces has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. Looking at the sub-region, “East Slow West Express†has become the main feature. The GDP growth rate of the eastern provinces is generally lower than that of the central and western provinces; in the eastern provinces, the GDP growth rate of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong is lower than the national level, while the GDP growth rate of the central and western provinces is higher than the national level. How do you view the difference in GDP growth rates between the eastern region and the central and western regions? Under the current domestic and international economic situation, the central and western regions will maintain rapid growth, will it re-take the old road of "extensive development" in the east? How to achieve "steady growth" in the eastern region? "East slow west fast" is the constraint of the development of inevitable external demand market and resources, environment, population and other factors, leading to a decline in the development speed of the eastern region; the western region has better resource conditions, and is also the main region to undertake the transfer of eastern industries, development The pace is also expected. According to the data, in the eastern provinces, except for Fujian and Tianjin, GDP growth has maintained double-digit growth, while GDP growth rates in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Beijing, and Shanghai are all below 10%. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai grew at a rate of 7.2%, ranking the last. In most provinces in the central and western regions, the GDP growth rate is higher than 10%, and the GDP growth rate in Guizhou and Chongqing is as high as 14.0%. Some experts believe that from the current domestic and international economic situation and historical development experience, the growth rate of GDP in the central and western regions is faster than that in the eastern region, which has certain inevitability and rationality. Professor Lin Jiang, director of the Department of Economics of the China Youth University for Political Sciences, said that the export-oriented economy of the eastern coastal provinces of China is obviously characterized by the international financial crisis. In the context of the continued global economic downturn, the failure of the three major international economies, and the weak external demand market, the eastern provinces are unlikely to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Moreover, the development of the eastern provinces is also constrained by factors such as resources, environment and population. With the rise of human resource costs and resource product prices, many industries in the east have begun to move to the central and western regions of China and some emerging market countries. To a certain extent, the economic growth in the eastern region has slowed down. Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told reporters that over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the GDP growth rate of the eastern provinces of China has maintained a super-high growth rate, but this high-speed growth cannot last for a long time, at a certain historical stage. It will inevitably move towards the medium-speed and medium-low-speed growth stage. Moreover, the current resource and environmental constraints faced by the eastern region will inevitably lead to a decline in the rate of development. The western region has better resource conditions, can give full play to the advantages of latecomers, and is the main region to undertake the transfer of eastern industries. In addition to the implementation of the national western development strategy and the strategy of the rise of the central region, the central and western regions are welcoming more. Policy opportunities and accelerated development are also expected. Experts pointed out that the current international economic situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the growth rate of GDP in the eastern provinces of China is lower than that in the central and western regions. This will not only help to coordinate regional economic development, but also help the central and western regions to further narrow the gap with the eastern region. More attention should be paid to the quality of economic development. The rapid growth of investment in the central and western regions is likely to lead to overcapacity, redundant construction and extensive development. It is necessary to persist in deepening reforms, especially to effectively change concepts and pay more attention to the quality of economic development rather than quantitative expansion of Shanxi. According to data released by the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, investment in investment, consumption, and export troika is still the most important support for economic development. In the first half of the year, Shanxi's fixed asset investment increased by 24.1% year-on-year, of which secondary industry investment increased by 28.6%. According to the analysis, the current “de-coalization†pressure in Shanxi Province is still very large, and a large part of the investment is still in the coal field. Due to the continued weakness of the coal market this year, the overall efficiency of Shanxi's industrial growth is not high, and to a certain extent, it has fallen into the predicament of “having growth and no developmentâ€. In fact, not only Shanxi, but many central and western provinces have expanded their investment as an initiative to stimulate economic growth and adjust their structure. “The acceleration of investment growth in the western region should be treated calmly and rationally.†Zou Dongtao, dean of the China Development and Reform Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that excessive investment growth is likely to lead to overcapacity, redundant construction and extensive development. Once the growth rate of investment slows down, the downward pressure on the economy will increase. Li Zuojun said that at present, the signs of the extensive development of the old road in the central and western regions are worthy of vigilance. First of all, the awareness of catching up with development in the central and western regions is relatively strong, and it is easy to ignore the resource and environmental costs of development. Second, the energy resources in the central and western regions are relatively abundant and have extensive development conditions. Third, the current assessment system still uses GDP and fiscal revenue. As a standard, the impulse to blindly pursue development has not disappeared. He suggested that the central and western regions should persist in deepening reforms, especially to change their concepts and pay more attention to the quality of economic development rather than quantitative expansion. The steady growth pressure is still very large. The eastern region still shoulders the main task of steady growth in the process of “transfer mode and structure adjustmentâ€. At present, we should accelerate the economic transformation, develop emerging industries, foster new growth points, and avoid heavy investment. The old road of large-scale project construction Although the GDP growth rate of the eastern provinces is slowing down, the overall growth rate is not large, and many provinces have high energy-consuming industries. The growth rate has declined and industrial economic benefits have improved. According to the data provided by the Fujian Provincial Economic and Trade Commission, preliminary statistics show that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in Fujian Province decreased by 3.6% in the first half of this year. The comprehensive energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 2.66% year-on-year. It fell by 15.1%. Although the GDP growth rate of Beijing and Shanghai is the bottom of the national ranking, the modern service industry has shown a good momentum and injected a strong impetus for economic growth; the total retail sales of social consumer goods has grown at a faster rate, and to some extent, it has also made up for the shortage of external demand. Experts pointed out that although the current development of the central and western regions is conducive to alleviating the steady growth pressure in China, the total economic volume in the central and western regions is still far lower than that in the eastern region. The eastern region still shoulders the steady growth in the process of “transfer mode and structure adjustmentâ€. task. "If the economy in the eastern region does not come, the role of radiation in the central and western regions will be weakened, and the goal of steady growth will be greatly limited." Lin Jiang said that the current eastern provinces should accelerate economic transformation, develop emerging industries, and foster new ones. The growth point, avoiding the old road of large-scale investment and large-scale project construction. Lin Jiang also pointed out that at present, it is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and to reduce the burden on enterprises through structural tax reduction. At the same time, the implementation of income distribution reforms stimulated the growth of the domestic demand market. In addition, financial institutions should be further guided to serve the real economy.