Capacity transfer is difficult to solve the decline in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum

According to data provided by Liu Xiangmin, China consumed more than 16 million tons of primary aluminum in 2010, which is close to the total consumption of 16.272 million tons of primary aluminum in 1986. It is the sum of 3.87 million tons of primary aluminum consumption in Japan and 2.24 million tons in Japan in 2009. 2.61 times, "so in terms of per capita consumption or unit GDP consumption, China's aluminum consumption has reached a fairly high level." Despite the high consumption of aluminum, an important problem that domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises have to face is that the whole Industry profitability is facing a serious threat. Last year, Chinalco's annual operating income was 121 billion, an increase of 72.19% over the same period; net profit was 778 million, and the loss was realized. In 2009, China Aluminum's sales revenue was only 70.28 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, and the net profit was a loss of 4.65 billion yuan. Zhongfu Industrial (12.60, -0.74, -5.55%) (600595.SH) had revenue of 10.826 billion yuan last year, an increase of 69.04% year-on-year; however, net profit was only 221 million yuan, a decrease of 28.65% year-on-year. In 2010, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 16.19 million tons, an increase of 26.07% year-on-year, accounting for more than 40% of global production for the first time. At that time, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 22 million tons, and there are still a large number of new and proposed electrolytic aluminum projects. Li Defeng, director of the Aluminum Division of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, predicted that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the electrolytic aluminum industry will face a relatively surplus supply. With the gradual increase of the average social cost, the profitability of the whole industry will continue to decline. The electrolytic aluminum industry has entered the "marginal effect era" of fierce competition. Li Defeng expects that by 2015, the global primary aluminum production capacity will reach 60 million tons, China's primary aluminum production capacity will reach 30 million tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum production will remain at 22 million tons. It will have a million tons of electrolytic aluminum production and processing capacity. There will be more than 10 large enterprises or groups with basic synergies in the upstream and downstream industry chains. At present, the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity has begun to gradually shift to energy-rich regions. Liu Xiangmin believes that from an international perspective, with the further increase in global energy costs, especially the possibility of carbon costs in Europe and the United States, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will continue to shift to regions with low energy costs such as the Middle East and Russia. According to incomplete statistics, from 2009 to 2011, there were 5 electrolytic aluminum projects in Qatar, Russia, UAE and India, with a total capacity of 2.71 million tons. The proposed project has 6 projects with a total capacity of 4.51 million tons. Domestic electrolytic aluminum has also gradually shifted to the west. In 2010, domestic electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 4.44 million tons, of which 68% were located in Gansu, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and the newly added production capacity was about 1.5 million tons. In Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. In 2010, the comprehensive AC power consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 13,979 kWh/ton, and the average electricity price in the industry exceeded 0.45 yuan/kWh, which is the highest in the world. Li Defeng said that the average electricity consumption price of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is the highest in the world, and the electricity cost accounts for more than 40% of the total cost. The foreign electricity cost accounts for about 25% to 30% of the total cost of electrolytic aluminum, with labor costs and financial costs. As the cost of raw materials continues to increase, the competitiveness of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is gradually decreasing. In fact, domestic electrolytic aluminum is moving to the west. Although energy costs have been reduced, an important issue is where human resources come from. Not only electrolytic aluminum, but many high-energy-consuming industries are now hoping to move to the west, using the low-cost energy resources in the west, but the human resources there are a constraint.  

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