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The internationalization of the renminbi affects the global political nerve
Arvind S. Bramania, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a well-known think tank in the United States, recently wrote an article in the Financial Times, reminding the next US president who will win the election. The "dollar zone" has been replaced by a renminbi-based currency zone, which may have appeared for the first time since World War II. We are grateful to Sabramania for its optimistic view of China's future, and it is not necessary to arbitrarily put this argument on the label of "China's economic threat theory" out of ideological inertia. But as a Chinese, if you are always immersed in the optimism about China's future development prospects, it will probably make us lose the ability to find the road ahead and even the trap. As a serious scholar, Sabramania's assertions are based on solid research. He pointed out that since the global financial crisis, while the US and European economies were in trouble, the renminbi has increasingly become a reference currency for other countries' central banks to decide their own exchange rates. Since the renminbi resumed the floating exchange rate system in June 2010, the currency of the renminbi has been closely watched. There has been an increase in the number of currencies, while the currencies of the euro and the US dollar have decreased in the same period. This change is particularly evident in East Asia, where the currencies of the seven economies, including South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are more connected to the renminbi than the US dollar. Only the currencies of China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Mongolia have a relationship with the US dollar that exceeds the renminbi. He also pointed out that the root of this change lies in China's rise as a trade center; China's share of manufacturing trade in East Asia rose from 2% in 1991 to about 22% today. Countries that export goods to the growing Chinese market or supply chains that are centered on China have seen the benefits of keeping their currencies in the renminbi. Not only that, but trade also promotes the rise of the renminbi outside East Asia. For example, currencies in India, Chile, Israel, South Africa, and Turkey are all currently focused on the renminbi; in some cases, the renminbi is even more connected than the dollar. If China liberalizes its financial and foreign exchange markets, the attractiveness of the renminbi will expand rapidly. Sabramania saw the tremendous progress made since the Chinese government officially launched the RMB internationalization strategy in 2009. However, this progress is more a natural rebound after the long-term suppression of RMB internationalization. China is still far from establishing a solid international currency status for the RMB. China's huge economic scale and trade scale are theoretically sufficient to support an influential international currency, but long-term financial closure and financial regulation have made China's financial industry an important shortcoming to support the internationalization of the renminbi. Moreover, a truly widely recognized international currency needs strong geopolitics as a support, and it needs the support of a group of firm monetary allies, which, in the context of China and some neighboring countries in recent years, appears to be Especially scarce. The famous international political economist Robert Gilpin declared in the 1970s that the US nuclear weapons and dollar status are the two cornerstones supporting the US global hegemony, and they are mutually reinforcing and indispensable. Without the support of strong international political capabilities, the internationalization of the renminbi will probably be the same as the internationalization of the yen in the past. Once the market environment is in turmoil, its international status may sway with the wind, not like the US dollar. How the market changes, the status of the dollar has always been the pinnacle of the sea, and it does not move. Therefore, in addition to trade, the internationalization of the renminbi requires the Chinese government to have political centripetal force in East Asia. When the United States announced a high-profile return to East Asia and East Asian countries have opportunistic choices of "economic dependence on China and political dependence on the United States", how to manage the geopolitical environment of the internationalization of the renminbi and consolidate the political foundation of the internationalization of the renminbi, In particular, the Chinese government needs to think deeply.