It is understood that the methanol industry has entered the winter in advance, and most of the methanol companies in the western and port areas of China are suffering. According to analysis, in today's situation, the magnitude and speed of methanol price cuts will increase.

First, the methanol inventory "has no place on the heights"

It is understood that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of the methanol industry proposes to strictly control the total amount of methanol, but the growth momentum of production capacity in 2012 has not been curbed. According to statistics from Zhongyu Information, the total capacity of newly built and expanded installations that can actually be put into operation in 2012 is about 8 to 9 million tons. It is expected that by the end of this year, the total methanol production capacity in China will approach 60 million tons, and the capacity growth rate will be close to 20 %.

Zhongyu Information Analyst Wang Xiaotian believes that with the increase in domestic methanol production capacity, the methanol production capacity base continues to expand, coupled with continued coal prices this year, the cost pressure on the methanol industry greatly reduced, the domestic methanol companies operating rate increased significantly, the methanol overcapacity situation will intensify . "The current industry operating rate has been at the highest level this year, and will also usher in the peak period of work." The relevant person in charge of Xineng Phoenix (Tengzhou) Energy Co., Ltd. admitted to reporters that starting from the end of October this year, the industry started. The rate has gradually increased and is currently concentrated at 60%-70%. At the end of the year, the surplus production of domestic methanol may reach 300,000-400,000 tons. "Especially in the northwest region, the production pressure in the fourth quarter will be even more pronounced." It is understood that in November, the shipping situation in the northwest region was poor and the inventory backlog was relatively serious, which was the greatest pressure in the same period of history.

"Now the northwest region's inventory (about 100,000 tons) is the amount of surplus in the market, plus the previous period, Henan and the northwest parking facilities are gradually opened, if there is no major positive, the methanol industry will soon form a situation of lower prices each other. At present, the two places The price of methanol has dropped by 100-250 yuan/ton from the previous period," said the person in charge.

Second, the demand is difficult to improve The industry has summed up the characteristics of the methanol market since the fourth quarter of this year - peak season is not prosperous, off-season is even lighter. According to data from Zhongyu Information, demand for terminal equipment such as infrastructure has continued to weaken. In the third quarter of this year's methanol market, demand for methanol from formaldehyde, acetic acid, DFM, and dimethyl ether fell by 3 to 18 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. “After the National Day, the industry’s expected demand season has been unable to arrive because of low terminal demand and capital constraints. In mid-November, the methanol market gradually entered the traditional off-season and demand continued to weaken compared to the previous period. At the same time, methanol consumption The traditional and emerging fields have not developed as expected."

“In the current environment, the Northwest region will first cut prices and promotions.” A methanol trader in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, said that the pressure on stocks is increasing, due to the need for stock removal before December, combined with longer delivery cycle and lower price in the target market. Self-insurance, Northwest cargo can only accelerate the rate and speed of price cuts, in order to stimulate customer enthusiasm to buy, speed up the process of destocking.

Faced with the imbalance of supply and demand in the industry, Zhang Gang said that the use of good tools is an inevitable choice for methanol companies to tide over difficulties. He said that in the past, methanol companies usually rely on their own operating experience in the industry to operate, in order to set production, in order to sell inventory, and methanol ** will provide companies with an effective hedging tool to help companies run steadily. "The participation of methanol companies is highly motivated. Our company now has a dedicated ** trader, in addition to grasping the risk exposure in spot operations, doing the hedging of the corresponding positions, you can also create virtual Stocks or sell short inventory."