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Recently, the Ministry of Land and Resources held a press conference, saying that the preparations for the third round of shale gas prospecting competition competition are underway, and the plan for competitive transfer has been initially formed, and the competition transfer block has been selected.
After the first two rounds of bidding, private enterprises have entered a relatively calm stage from the initial enthusiasm for shale gas development, and the third round of shale gas tendering will probably be cold.
It is worth noting that a few days ago, the National Energy Administration lowered the shale gas production in China by 2020, from 60 billion cubic meters to 100 billion cubic meters to 30 billion cubic meters, and the planned target output was cut by half.
Some analysts believe that the situation of domestic shale gas development is not very optimistic. Even if the shale gas does not lower the target output, the private enterprises are already very calm. The successful experience of shale gas development in the United States cannot be completely replicated in China.
In addition, there are still many uncertainties in the development of domestic shale gas. So far, there has not been a unified opinion on the development of shale gas, so many people are afraid to invest in this industry.
Shale gas production target downgrade
The National Energy Administration raised and lowered the shale gas production in China in 2020 at the 13th Five-Year Energy Planning Conference. By 2020, shale gas and coalbed methane production will reach 30 billion cubic meters.
It is worth noting that the shale gas “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan†mentioned that shale gas production in 2020 will strive to reach 60 billion cubic meters to 100 billion cubic meters, compared with the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†target. The planned target production is lowered by half. This news has confuses companies that have previously been passionate about shale gas.
According to Huang Lili of CITIC Securities, this indicates that the situation of domestic shale gas development is not very optimistic.
At the same time, Dongxiu Petrochemical Network analyst Dong Xiu told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the current situation of shale gas development in China is severe and the output is low, mainly because many problems in the development of shale gas in China have not been overcome, not only human and material resources. The problem also includes technical and social resource constraints.
Dong Xiu believes that the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for shale gas development proposes that by 2015, China will achieve 6.5 billion cubic meters of shale gas production. It seems that it is also challenging to achieve this goal.
It is understood that in March 2012, the Ministry of Land and Resources officially released data that China's shale gas recoverable resources amounted to 25.08 trillion cubic meters, which is comparable to the United States. But at present, there are only 500 shale gas wells in China, and only half of them are in production. In the United States, there are about 10,000 wells in the United States for shale gas mining.
Dong Xiu said that the scarcity of shale gas wells is a difficult problem in the development of technology. If the current situation is to achieve the goals set out in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", there is no special big action. It is impossible to follow the current operation mode. Going on, the production goal of 30 billion cubic meters is not necessarily achieved.
Third round of shale gas tendering or cold
On September 17, the Ministry of Land and Resources held a press conference, saying that the exploration and development of shale gas in China is still in its infancy.
At the same time, Che Changbo, deputy director of the Department of Geological Exploration of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said at the meeting that the preparations for the third round of shale gas prospecting competition were underway, and the plan for competitive transfer was initially formed, and the competition transfer block was selected. After all the preparatory work is completed, the new shale gas exploration rights block will be transferred to the society in a timely manner through competition. However, in the industry's view, the third round of shale gas tendering is likely to be cold.
Dong Xiu believes that the third round of bidding for shale gas development in China has taken shape. The current plan is to establish a national-level development area similar to shale gas. Through large-scale investment, concentration of technology and capital, it will be drawn in Sichuan. Scope, re-division of mineral rights, and then organize exploration and development, it is possible to complete the production of shale gas 100 billion cubic meters. In addition, the current shale gas resources are still dominated by the three major oil companies. Even if private enterprises invest, how to ensure that private enterprises are not restricted by the three major oil companies when entering the market is a problem that needs to be solved.
It cannot be ignored that there is still water problem that has not been solved in shale gas development.
Wang Zhonghao, an analyst at Longzhong Petrochemical Network, also told the Securities Daily that China’s shale gas operation was only successful in the Sichuan Basin. There are no absolute success stories in other regions. The industry will be more cautious.
“Even if the shale gas does not lower the target output, the private enterprises are already very calm. The successful experience of shale gas development in the United States cannot be completely replicated in China. The shale gas development time is too long, and finally it may not be able to vent out. Generally, private enterprises do not have Enough time and money to play with fire." Wang Haohao believes.
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The shale gas target production is lowered by half. The third round of bidding was coldly opposed by private enterprises.
Summary The third round of shale gas tenders enters the countdown! Recently, the Ministry of Land and Resources held a press conference, saying that the preparations for the third round of shale gas prospecting competition competition are underway, and the plan for competitive transfer has been initially formed, and the competition transfer block has been selected. After the first two rounds of bidding...
The third round of shale gas tenders entered the countdown!