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A leading indicator of weaker demand is that the copper stocks in the Shanghai warehouse are stable at around 400,000 tons, up from 1 million tons earlier this year. According to a warehouse manager, the manufacturing company has slowed down the use of copper after a large purchase of copper in the past few months, causing a decline in inventory; the manager declined to be named because he was not authorized to post information to the media. Copper stocks are rising in warehouses in London. According to data released by the London Metal Exchange, copper stocks have continued to increase over the past three days.
Another sign of weakening demand is the decline in China's copper premium, which analysts say is not a good sign for copper futures prices. According to Shanghai Metal Markets, the premium for copper in China is lower than that of London copper from $230 per tonne in early August to $168. Tuesday's benchmark 3-month copper futures price was basically flat at $7,228.25 per ton.
The purchasing manager of a power cable manufacturing company in Zhejiang said that he is not too optimistic about the future trend of copper prices; his company supplies China State Grid Corp. He expects demand for power cable manufacturers to remain stable before the end of the year after the rebound in the first half of the year; copper consumption in the power cable manufacturing industry accounts for half of China's overall consumption.
He said that the orders of his company have not been much since July, because some urban infrastructure construction projects have been completed, and most orders were issued and completed in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, power grid investment increased by 19% year-on-year, reaching RMB 265 billion (about USD 21.7 billion), far exceeding the 4% growth target set by the State Grid. Yang Changhua, chief analyst of Beijing Antaike, a state-owned metal information provider, said that this means that the growth of the power industry is very small this year.
He said that China's copper demand is unlikely to have any surprises this year.
Investment banks such as JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have recently raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year due to improved data such as China's manufacturing industry. But JPMorgan Chase is also cautious and believes that there are still many challenges ahead, such as debt level inflation and moderate and short-term economic recovery.
Yang Changhua added that even if the Chinese government introduces additional supportive measures, or the economy seems to be stabilizing, the impact on the copper industry is quite limited, and the impact of macroeconomic policies on the micro level is usually lagging behind.
In addition, Barclays said that the increase in copper supply may lead to oversupply and the copper market is worse. The bank expects copper prices to fall in the fourth quarter. The bank estimates that the global copper supply will be 418,000 tons in the second half of this year, and there will be a supply shortage of 307,000 tons in the first half of the year.
In a recent research report, Barclays said that although copper prices may rise further in the near future, the bank tends to sell on rallies, preparing for the price decline in late 2013.
UOB KayHian senior analyst Helen Lau lowered the average copper price forecast this year from $7,360 per ton to $7,304, while also lowering the price forecast for 2014, citing the lack of signs of a recovery in Chinese demand, possibly There is an oversupply situation and high global copper stock levels.
China's demand declines, copper price rises lose momentum
Abstract Over the past month, copper prices have continued to rise as a result of the signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. The current rally has lost momentum and prices have begun to fall, and there are signs that Chinese manufacturing companies, the world's largest copper buyers, are cutting demand. Copper prices were high in the first half of August
In the past month, copper prices have continued to rise due to signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. The current rally has lost momentum and prices have begun to fall, and there are signs that Chinese manufacturers, the world's largest copper buyers, are cutting demand.