Analysis of the changes in the production capacity of China's five major general plastics

In 2011, China's PVC production capacity accounted for 45% of the five general-purpose plastics, followed by PE production capacity of 22%, PP production capacity slightly less than PE, ABS and PS production capacity accounted for 6% and 5% respectively. In 2015, the capacity expansion rate of PVC in China slowed down, while the capacity of PP expanded rapidly. The proportion of PVC capacity decreased to 36%, the capacity of PP increased by 28%, and the capacity of PE increased to 24%. %, ABS and PS capacity expansion rate is relatively slow, ABS and PS capacity ratio is 6%.

Calculate the self-sufficiency rate of the five general-purpose plastics based on the combination of China's production and imports. As a whole, China's production capacity continued to expand. From 2011 to 2015, the self-sufficiency rate of the five general plastics increased, the self-sufficiency rate of PVC increased by 8% to 99%, and the self-sufficiency rate of PP increased by 11% to 78%. ABS self-sufficiency The rate increased by 10% to 62%, the PS self-sufficiency rate increased by 7% to 73%, and the PE self-sufficiency rate increased by 1% to 58%.

The self-sufficiency rate of PVC and PP is high, mainly due to the large production capacity of PVC and PP. PE self-sufficiency rate is less than PVC and PP, mainly due to the limitation of China's supply structure. It is more dependent on some imported products, mainly divided into price dependence and product type dependence. The price dependence is mainly the low-end price advantage products in the Middle East. Mainly South Korea, Japan and other high-end quality, China has a supply gap. ABS and PS China have limited consumption. With the expansion of China's production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate is gradually increasing.

From the marketing model of the five general plastics, the direct sales rate of PE and PP is relatively high, both above 40%, while the direct sales rate of ABS and PVC is relatively low, and the self-sufficiency rate is not higher than 30%, mainly for various plastic products. There are differences in customer groups, financial capabilities, and customer distribution centers.

In 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed the task of de-capacity and de-stocking. The PVC de-capacity trend is more obvious, and the PP capacity expansion plan is still more. If the PP capacity expansion rate is not controlled in time, the PVC is now PP. tomorrow. Compared with PP, the capacity expansion rate of PE is relatively low, and the difference between PE and PP is large. The price difference between East China and China is 1,800 yuan/ton. From the current price level of the five general-purpose plastics, the price is inversely proportional to the production capacity. ABS's production capacity is relatively small, and the capacity expansion rate is relatively slow. The ABS price is higher than 10,000 yuan/ton; while the PVC production capacity is the largest, China's supply side The pressure is relatively high, and the price of PVC is less than 6,000 yuan / ton.

China's economic growth has entered a shift period, the speed has slowed down, China's demand for bulk commodities has been affected, and the growth rate of China's bulk commodities should be adjusted simultaneously. Only by controlling the speed of capacity expansion, the price of the product can be relatively strong. Otherwise, it will only sink deeper and deeper in the excess mud, and the market will not perform better. The urgent task of the plastics industry is to control the speed of capacity expansion, adjust the industrial structure, and produce according to the needs of the terminal, increase the technological content of the products, and increase the added value of the products.